San Antonio TX real estate listings and homes for sale, home buying, home selling information – James "Jay" Mandl - JLM Mortgage Capital

Jay's Mortgage and Investors Blog

Mr Mortgage on the Fannie/Freddie Crisis

July 14th, 2008 11:38 AM

Posted by James Mandl on July 14th, 2008 11:38 AMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/28/2008 10:02:00 AM CST

July 28th, 2008 1:16 PM

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock weakness. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 68 points and the Nasdaq down 7 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 of a discount point.

There is no relevant news scheduled for release today, but there are several important reports due this week that are likely to affect mortgage pricing. The first piece of news comes late tomorrow morning when the Conference Board posts their Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) for July. This index measures consumer sentiment, giving us an idea of consumer willingness to spend. This is important because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy. If the CCI reading is weaker than expected, we may see bond prices rise and mortgage rates drop tomorrow. Current forecasts are calling for a reading of 50.0, which would be a lightly lower readin g than June's reading.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release Wednesday that is relevant to mortgage rates. However, there are two on the schedule for Thursday. The first is the quarterly Gross Domestic Product (GDP), which is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth. It is the sum of all goods and services produced in the U.S. and usually has a great deal of influence on the financial markets. Current forecasts are estimating a 1.8% pace. A larger increase will probably hurt bond prices, leading to higher mortgage rates. But a smaller increase would likely fuel a bond market rally.

The second report of the day is the 2nd Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI) that measures employers' costs for wages and benefits. It is considered to be an important measurement of wage inflation and can have a pretty big impact on the bond market and mortgage rates. If it shows a rapid increase, raising inflation concerns, the bond market may drop and mortgage rates rise. It is expected to reveal an increase of 0.7%.

Overall, it likely will be a fairly active week in the mortgage market. With several important economic reports on tap, we will likely see noticeable movement in mortgage rates more than one day. The most important day of the week is Friday with the Employment and ISM reports being released, but Thursday's GDP release is highly important to the markets and could heavily influence mortgage pricing also.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 28th, 2008 1:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mr Mortgage on the Pay Option ARM Implosion

July 18th, 2008 2:21 PM

Posted by James Mandl on July 18th, 2008 2:21 PMPost a Comment (1)

Great Information On Land Trusts

July 16th, 2008 5:40 PM

This is a Texas Attorney Darius M. Barazandeh at one of his seminars. This is some great information if your looking for some solid basic understanding of the use of a Land Trust.

Posted by James Mandl on July 16th, 2008 5:40 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/16/2008 10:33:00 AM CST

July 16th, 2008 12:02 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory again after this morning's economic data revealed stronger than expected readings. The stock markets seem to be having little reaction to the news with the Dow up 4 points and the Nasdaq nearly unchanged. The bond market is currently down 15/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .375 of a discount point.

The big news this morning was June's Producer Price Index (PPI) from the Labor Department. They reported that the overall CPI reading rose 1.1% while the core data rose 0.3%. Both of these readings exceeded forecasts, indicating that inflationary pressures were more of a threat at the consumer level of the economy than many had thought.

June's Industrial Production data was also released this morning. It showed an increase in output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities of 0.5%. This was much stronger than the 0.2% increase that was expecting, m eaning manufacturing activity was higher than thoughts. This is considered bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates.

Part two of Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony on the economy is being made to the House Financial Services Committee. I am not expecting his words to impact bonds or rates this morning unless something in the question and answer portion surprises us.

The minutes from the last FOMC meeting will be posted later today. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members during discussion and voting at the last meeting. I am not expecting to see a change in rates as a result of them, but a possibility does exist.

Tomorrow's only relevant data is June's Housing Starts report. This data gives us an indication of housing sector strength, but is not considered to be of high importance. Analysts are currently expecting to see a smal l decline in new starts of housing projects. However, I don't see this data having a much of an impact on mortgage rates tomorrow unless it varies greatly from forecasts.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 16th, 2008 12:02 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/15/2008 12:17:00 PM CST

July 15th, 2008 1:08 PM

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again as the volatility in stocks continues. The stock markets are in negative territory with the Dow down 106 points and the Nasdaq down 28 points. The bond market is currently up 18/32, which likely improve this morning's mortgage by approximately .250 of a discount point.

The Labor Department gave us June's Producer Price Index (PPI) this morning, saying that prices rose 1.8% last month. This exceeds the 1.3% increase that was forecasted. However, the core data reading of 0.2% that excludes more volatile food and energy prices fell short of forecasts. This means that food and energy prices spiked more than expected, but since core prices did not rise as much as thought that data is being considered favorable for bonds.

June's Retail Sales report was also released today, showing a 0.1% increase in sales when analysts had predicted a 0.4% rise. This was lower than expected and indicates tha t consumers are being more frugal than thought. That is good news for bonds because consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy.

Fed Chairman Bernanke's testimony before the Senate Banking Committee this morning did not reveal any significant surprises. He indicated there was concern about the housing market along with energy costs and their impact on the economy, saying that they could drag on the economy the remainder of the year. He will likely repeat the same testimony tomorrow before the House Financial Services Committee. I am not expecting his words to impact bonds or rates tomorrow unless something in the question and answer portion surprises us.

Tomorrow brings us the release of June's Consumer Price Index (CPI). It is a mirror of today's PPI with the exception that the CPI measures inflation at the more important consumer level of the economy. Analysts have forecasted a 0.7% increase in the overall index a nd a 0.2% rise in the core data. The core data is considered to be the key reading because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices, giving us a more stable measure of inflation. Higher than expected readings could raise inflation fears and push mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

June's Industrial Production data will also be posted tomorrow morning. This data measures output and U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an indication of manufacturing sector strength. It is expected to show a 0.2% rise in production, indicating that the manufacturing sector showed moderate growth during the month. A smaller than expected increase would be good news and could help push mortgage rates slightly lower tomorrow.

Also worth noting is the release of the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. There is a possibility of the markets reacting to them following their 2:00 PM ET release tomorrow, especially if they show some divisiveness by its members durin g discussion and voting at the last meeting.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 15th, 2008 1:08 PMPost a Comment (0)

Have Your Credit Monitored for FREE

July 14th, 2008 2:01 PM

Tuesday, July 08, 2008, 1:04:11 PM | Mortgage Porter

Recently, one of the big three credit bureaus, Transunion, settled on a class action lawsuit for re-selling consumers private information. The settlement includes providing consumers with free credit monitoring or a possible cash payment...but you must apply for this benefit by September 24, 2008. You are eligible if you have obtained credit from January 1, 1987 to May 28, 2008--including mortgages, car loans, credit cards, etc.

For more information, or to apply, visit www.listclassaction.com.

I encourage you to take advantage of this opportunity. It just takes a few minutes to sign up! This is especially important as banks are cutting back credit limits for credit cards and home equity lines of credit which may greatly impact your credit score. More on that to follow.

Posted by James Mandl on July 14th, 2008 2:01 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/14/2008 11:21:00 AM CST

July 14th, 2008 12:43 PM

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are kicking the week off with the Dow down 72 points and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 16/32, but we will likely still see an increase in mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point as investors digest the news of the Fed supporting Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

This week brings us the release of six important economic reports for the bond market to digest. Several of these reports are considered to be of high importance, meaning we will likely see volatility in the financial markets and mortgage pricing over the next several days. There are also plenty of corporate earnings releases scheduled for the stock markets this week along with the minutes from the last FOMC meeting. Throw in a couple of days of Fed testimony and we have the makings for a very interesting week.

The first piece of data comes tomorrow mo rning with the release of June's Producer Price Index (PPI). The PPI is very important because it measures inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy. It is expected to show a 1.3% increase in the overall reading and a 0.3% rise in the core data reading. The bond market should react quite favorably to weaker than expected readings, but a bigger than expected jump in the core reading could send mortgage rates higher tomorrow.

June's Retail Sales report will also be posted tomorrow. The Commerce Department is expected to say that sales at retail establishments rose 0.3% last month. This data is considered to be of high importance because it measures consumer spending. Consumer spending makes up two-thirds of the U.S. economy, so any related data is watched closely. A smaller than expected increase in sales could help fuel a bond rally and lead to lower mortgage rates, depending on the results of the PPI report.

Fed Chairman Bernanke will speak before the Senate Banking Committee tomorrow morning and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday morning at 10:00am ET. His testimony will be broadcasted and will be watched very closely. Analysts and traders will be looking for the status of the economy and his expectations of future growth, particularly inflation concerns. This should create a great deal of volatility in the markets during the testimony and the question and answer session that follows. If he indicates that inflation is still a point of concern, we will likely see the bond market tank and mortgage rates rise.

Overall though, I think we will see the most movement in mortgage pricing this week tomorrow or Wednesday due to the release of the inflation related indexes and Mr. Bernanke's testimony those days. It will likely be an active week for mortgage rates with a fair amount of volatility, so please maintain contact with your mortgage professional if still floating an interest ra te.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 14th, 2008 12:43 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mr Mortgage on Mortgage Modifications - You Can Qualify!

July 10th, 2008 5:44 PM

Posted by James Mandl on July 10th, 2008 5:44 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/09/2008 11:03:00 AM CST

July 9th, 2008 11:53 AM

Wednesday's bond market has opened relatively flat yet again, which seems to be the norm lately. The stock markets are following suit with the Dow and Nasdaq both down a couple of points. The bond market is currently up only 1/32, but due to strength in bonds late yesterday we should see an improvement of .250 - .375 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release again today. I am expecting the stock markets, and possibly oil prices, to continue to be the biggest influence on bond trading the rest of the day. If the major stock indexes remain near current levels, mortgage rates will likely follow suit. However, if stocks or oil moves significantly, we likely will see a shift in bond trading and possibly mortgage pricing.

I am remaining on the cautious side, particularly in the short-term outlooks. I think there is more likelihood of seeing bonds fall and mortgage rates move higher in the immediate future than there is of them improving much. Accordingly, I am holding the lock recommendations for immediate and short-term closings.

The first piece of economic news that may affect mortgage rates is tomorrow weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. Analysts will be paying a little more attention to this week's release than usual because last week's report showed that claims had crossed above 400,000 the previous week. This is an important benchmark that will be watched closely. Last week's numbers didn't get much attention because they were posted at the same time as June's monthly Employment report. But with little data scheduled for release this week, I believe more focus will be made on tomorrow's report than usual. Current forecasts are calling for approximately 395,000 new claims to have been filed.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 da ys... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 9th, 2008 11:53 AMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/03/2008 11:05:00 AM CST

July 3rd, 2008 12:16 PM

Thursday's bond market has opened down slightly after this morning's Employment report failed to deliver any significant surprises. The stock markets are reacting favorably with the Dow up 90 points and the Nasdaq gaining 6 points. The bond market is currently down 5/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates at yesterday's afternoon levels.

The Labor Department gave us today's only relevant economic news, saying that the unemployment rate remained at 5.5% last month when it was expected to slip to 5.4%. The report showed that 62,000 jobs were lost during the month, which nearly matched forecasts of 60,000. The report also revised May's job loss from 49,000 to 62,000, meaning that there was little difference between May's employment situation and June's. This lack of ?further deterioration? is being taken as good news for stocks and helped prevent bonds from moving higher this morning.

Also worth noting was the Labor Department's w eekly release of unemployment claim figures. They said this morning in a separate release that 404,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was the first time that claims crossed the important benchmark of 400,000 since March. Claims exceeding 400,000 is believed to be a recessionary sign and indicates that the employment sector is weakening. However, this news is being overshadowed by the much more important monthly report that was released today rather than its typical Friday posting day.

Keep in mind that the bond market will close at 2:00 PM today and all markets will be closed tomorrow in observance of the Independence Day holiday. All markets will reopen Monday morning.

Next week is pretty light in terms of economic releases, especially compared to this week's data. There are only a couple of reports scheduled that are even relevant to bonds and mortgage rates, but none are considered to be of high-importance. Look for more det ails on next week's events in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 3rd, 2008 12:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/02/2008 11:03:00 AM CST

July 2nd, 2008 12:03 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory again as investors continue to worry about the economy and what this month's Employment report is going to show. The stock markets are showing losses this morning with the Dow down 36 points and the Nasdaq down 21 points. The bond market is currently up 7/32, but we will still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to weakness in bonds late yesterday.

The Commerce Department reported this morning that new orders at U.S. factories rose 0.6% in May. This was slightly higher than forecasts but not enough to influence bond trading or mortgage rates during morning trading. They also revised April's sales higher by 0.2% but it also has not had an impact on mortgage pricing.

Tomorrow morning brings us the release of June's Employment report that will give us the U.S. unemployment rate, number of new payrolls added or lost and average hourly earnings. These are considered to be very important readings of the employment sector and can have a huge impact on the financial markets.

The ideal scenario for the bond market is rising unemployment, a decline in payrolls and no change in earnings. Weaker than expected readings should help boost bond prices and lower mortgage rates. However, stronger than forecasted readings could be disastrous for mortgage pricing. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate to slip 0.1% to 5.4%, while 60,000 jobs were lost and a 0.3% rise in earnings.

The bond market will close early tomorrow ahead of Friday's Independence Day holiday and will reopen Monday morning. This may add to the volatility following tomorrow's release as investors move to protect themselves over the long weekend.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 2nd, 2008 12:03 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 07/01/2008 10:02:00 AM CST

July 1st, 2008 11:26 AM

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite the release of stronger than expected economic news. The stock markets are showing losses with the Dow down 38 points and the Nasdaq down 6 points. The bond market is currently up 5/32, but we likely will see little change in this morning's mortgage rates due to some weakness late yesterday.

The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) reported late this morning that their manufacturing index for June rose from 49.6 in May to 50.2 in June. Analysts were expecting to see a decline in the index with a reading of 48.6. This means that manufacturer sentiment was stronger than thought. This is actually considered to be negative news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, the market seems to be geared towards oil and stock prices today.

The Commerce Department will post May's Factory Orders data late tomorrow morning, which is similar to the Durable Goods Orders report that was released last week. The biggest difference being that tomorrow's report covers both durable and non-durable goods. It usually doesn't have as much of an impact on the bond market as the durable goods data does, but can lead to changes in mortgage pricing if it varies from forecasts. Current expectations are showing a 0.5% rise in new orders from April's levels. A smaller than expected rise in orders would be considered good news for the bond market and should help lower mortgage rates slightly tomorrow.

I would not be surprised to see some volatility in bonds and possibly mortgage rates later today and tomorrow. Accordingly, it may be wise to lock an interest rate if closing in the immediate future if you are still floating. This volatility, if it does come, could improve mortgage rates or lead to upward revisions. I am not so certain that they will be favorable to mortgage shoppers, hence the lock recommendation. This doesn't mean that I am sure rates will move higher over the next day or so. It simply means that the likelihood of seeing much of an improvement during that time frame is outweighed by the potential risk of a spike in rates. Maintaining fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional is recommended for the next few days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on July 1st, 2008 11:26 AMPost a Comment (0)