San Antonio TX real estate listings and homes for sale, home buying, home selling information – James "Jay" Mandl - JLM Mortgage Capital

Jay's Mortgage and Investors Blog

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/04/2008 11:11:00 AM CST

June 4th, 2008 12:22 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following stock gains during morning trading. The stock markets are in positive territory with the Dow up 60 points and the Nasdaq up 30 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, but we likely will still see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates due to strength in bonds during afternoon trading yesterday.

The Labor Department said that this morning that the 1st Quarter Productivity and Costs reading actually rose at a 2.6% annual pace. This was slightly more than was expected, but is good news for bonds and mortgage rates. The preliminary reading showed a 2.2% pace and forecasts were calling for an upward revision to 2.5%. This means that workers were a little more productive during the quarter than what was thought. That is considered to be favorable to bonds and mortgage rates because strong levels of productivity are believed to allow the economy to grow without inflation concerns .

The second report of the day was the Institute for Supply Management's Services Index late this morning. It revealed a reading of 51.7 that was higher than expected, but lower than last month's 52.0 reading. Accordingly, this data has little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates this morning.

There is no relevant data scheduled for release tomorrow except for weekly unemployment figures from the Labor Department. They are expected to say that 372,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week, matching the previous week's total. Generally speaking, this data usually does not have an impact on mortgage rates because it tracks only a week's worth of claims. This may be the case again tomorrow, however, with Friday's monthly report coming out any sizable surprise could influence expectations for Friday's release and lead to changes in mortgage rates.

The Labor Department will post May's Employment data early Friday mornin g. This report gives us key employment readings such as the U.S. unemployment rate and the number of jobs added or lost during the month. Analysts are expecting to see the unemployment rate climb to 5.1% with approximately a loss of 60,000 jobs during the month. A higher than expected increase in the unemployment rate and a larger drop in payrolls would be great news for the bond market. It would probably create a sizable rally in bonds, leading to lower mortgage rates Friday. But, if we see stronger than expected numbers, we will likely get a spike in mortgage rates. Accordingly, proceed with caution if still floating an interest rate.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 4th, 2008 12:22 PMPost a Comment (0)

Good News for Mileage Tax Deduction

June 30th, 2008 11:33 AM

I just read this and thought that this is something EVERYONE should know with the high price of gas.

With the summer driving season upon us and rising gas
prices continuing to drain our budgets, here's a little
bit of good news from Uncle Sam:

Effective July 1, 2008, the standard mileage rate
for business use of vehicles will increase from
50.5 cents per mile to 58.5 cents per mile.

So without lifting a finger, if you are using the mileage
rate method to calculate business auto expense, your
deduction for July-Dec 2008 just increased by about 16%.

For every 10,000 miles, that's an increase in expense
of $800. Not enough to retire on, but hey, every
little bit helps, right?

The mileage rates for medical and moving expenses will
also go up on July 1, from 19 cents to 27 cents per
mile.

The rate for providing services to charitable
organizations remains the same at 14 cents per mile.

Posted by James Mandl on June 30th, 2008 11:33 AMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/30/2008 9:44:00 AM CST

June 30th, 2008 11:06 AM

Monday's bond market has opened that week flat as have the stock markets. The Dow is currently up 3 points while the Nasdaq is nearly unchanged from Friday's close. The bond market is also nearly unchanged, but due to strength in bonds late Friday we should see an improvement in today's mortgage rates of approximately .375 of a discount point.

This week brings us the release of very few economic reports for the markets to digest. There are only three monthly reports scheduled for release that are likely to affect mortgage rates, but one of them is arguably the most influential single piece of data that we see each month. This is a shortened trading week with the markets closed Friday and an early bond market close Thursday in observance of the Independence Day holiday.

The first of the week's three reports is of fairly high importance to the bond market. The Institute of Supply Management (ISM) will release their manufacturing index for June late tomorrow morning. This index measures manufacturer sentiment by surveying trade executives on current business conditions. A reading below 50 means that more surveyed executives felt business improved than those who felt it had worsened. Analysts are expecting to see a reading of approximately 48.6, meaning that sentiment fell from May's level. That would be considered good news for bonds and mortgage rates.

Overall, I am expecting to see the most movement in rates the latter part of the week. Tomorrow morning should bring some volatility with the ISM index, but Thursday's Employment report is definitely the most important of the week and can single handily lead to an improvement or increase in mortgage rates for the week.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 6 0 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 30th, 2008 11:06 AMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/25/2008 2:34:00 PM CST

June 25th, 2008 3:15 PM

WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE:

This week's FOMC meeting has adjourned with an announcement that no change was made to key short-term interest rates, which was the first time in the past nine months. This was widely expected, but the post-meeting statement did indicate concerns about inflation. This has helped push bond prices lower than pre-adjournment levels. However, they have not moved enough as of yet to likely cause afternoon revisions to mortgage rates. I am expecting most lenders to reflect these changes in tomorrow's rates.

The stock markets have improved from this morning's levels with the Dow 92 points and the Nasdaq up 48 points. The bond market is currently down 12/32. If bond prices fall much further, we may see upward revisions to mortgage rates by the end of business. If they remain near current levels, the increase will probably be reflected in tomorrow's pricing.

The Commerce Department gave us May's Durable Goods Orders this morning, announcing no change in orders for big-ticket items between April and May. This was expected and therefore had little impact on the bond markets or mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning was May's New Home Sales report. It showed a decline in sales of newly constructed homes between April and May, but to a level that was expected. With this data being considered of low importance and the fact that it came very close to analysts' forecasts, this data has been a non-factor in this morning's trading.

The only relevant economic data scheduled for release tomorrow is the final reading to the1st Quarter GDP and weekly unemployment claims. The GDP data is quite aged now (covers January through March) and will likely have little impact on the bond market or mortgage pricing unless it varies greatly from previous readings. Last month's first revision showed a 0.9% rate of growth, but analysts are expecting to see an upward revision to 1.0%.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 25th, 2008 3:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/25/2008 10:08:00 AM CST

June 25th, 2008 12:06 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in negative territory following early stock gains. The stock markets are trading in positive territory with the Dow up 74 points and the Nasdaq 39 points. The bond market is currently down 7/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .125 of a discount point.

The Commerce Department gave us May's Durable Goods Orders this morning, announcing no change in orders for big-ticket items between April and May. This was expected and therefore had little impact on the bond markets or mortgage rates.

Also posted this morning was May's New Home Sales report. It showed a decline in sales of newly constructed homes between April and May, but to a level that was expected. With this data being considered of low importance and the fact that it came very close to analysts' forecasts, this data has been a non-factor in this morning's trading.

The FOMC meeting will adjourn at 2:15 PM ET today. It is widely expected that Mr. Bernanke and company will not change key short-term interest rates at this meeting, so the markets will be watching their post-meeting statement for any indication of the Fed's next move. Many analysts now think the Fed will need to raise key short-term interest rates before they make any further cuts. The statement likely will not give a clear definitive answer to this question, but it could help fuel theories by market participants that will cause plenty of volatility in the markets this afternoon.

I still think that we will hear words of concern about inflation in the economy as a result of high fuel prices. This could lead to higher mortgage rates this afternoon if accurate. Look for an update to this report after the markets have an opportunity to react to the announcement and post-meeting statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 25th, 2008 12:06 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/19/2008 12:01:00 PM CST

June 19th, 2008 1:06 PM

Thursday's bond market has opened in negative territory as interest turns to stocks. The stock markets are currently mixed with the Dow up 16 points and the Nasdaq down a few points. The bond market is currently down 8/32, but we will likely still see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to strength in bonds late yesterday.

The first piece of news released today was last week's unemployment numbers from the Labor Department. They reported that 381,000 new claims for benefits were filed last week. This was a decline form the previous week, but still higher than the 375,000 that was expected. This can be considered a bit of good news for bonds, but the truth is that this data is generally considered to be of low importance because it tracks only a week's worth of claims.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) was released this morning by the Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group. They said that the indicators rose 0.1%, slightly exceeding forecasts. This means that economic activity is being predicted to rise slightly over the next three to six months.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release tomorrow, so look for oil prices and stock movement to be the biggest influences on bond trading and mortgage rates. I am expecting to see a fairly quiet day in rates, but still fear there are more increases to mortgage rates likely before we see much of a decline. Therefore, I am holding the lock recommendations.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 19th, 2008 1:06 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/18/2008 10:10:00 AM CST

June 18th, 2008 12:08 PM

Wednesday's bond market has opened in positive territory following early stock losses. The stock markets are reacting negatively during early trading to some corporate earnings news. This has the Dow down 131 points and the Nasdaq down 32 points. The bond market is currently up 20/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .125 - .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today, so I am expecting to see the stock markets and oil prices be the biggest influences on bond trading and mortgage rates. If the major stock indexes extend their early losses, we could see bond prices rise and mortgage rates move lower. However, if stocks recover, we will likely see bonds suffer and possibly get upward revisions to mortgage rates today.

May's Leading Economic Indicators (LEI) will be posted late tomorrow morning. The Conference Board, who is a New York-based business research group, will post this data. It attempts to predict economic activity over the next three to six months. If it shows rapidly rising levels of activity, bond prices will probably drop, pushing mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning. But, a weaker than expected reading could lead to lower mortgage pricing. It is expected to show no change from April to May.

We will also get last week's unemployment numbers from the Labor Department tomorrow morning. Normally these figures are not worth addressing too much, but the previous week's number of new claims jumped to 384,000, coming close to an important benchmark of 400,000. If last week's total moved higher, we may see bonds respond favorably. If the number of new claims was below forecasts of 375,000, bonds could move lower tomorrow. This data comes before the LEI and before the other markets open.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 18th, 2008 12:08 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/16/2008 11:23:00 AM CST

June 16th, 2008 12:15 PM

Monday's bond market has opened up slightly, following a mixed open in stocks and no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. The Dow is currently showing a 35 points loss while the Nasdaq is up 3 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, but due to selling in bonds late Friday, we will likely still see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates.

This week is moderately busy with four economic reports scheduled to be released. Only one of the four is considered to be of high importance to the markets and mortgage rates. The remaining three are of interest to the markets but likely will not cause a large change in mortgage rates unless they vary greatly from forecasts.

Tomorrow brings us the release of three of the week's four reports. May's Producer Price Index (PPI) will be the first early tomorrow morning. It helps us measure inflationary pressures at the producer level of the economy and is the sister report to last week's Consumer Price Index (CPI). There are two readings of this index, the overall and the core data. The core data is considered to be the more important of the two because it excludes more volatile food and energy prices. A large increase could add fuel to the theory that inflation is a real threat to the economy because the higher prices will likely be passed on to the consumer in the near future. This would not be good news for bond prices or mortgage rates since inflation erodes the value of a bond's future fixed interest payments. Rising inflation causes investors to sell bonds, driving prices lower and mortgage rates higher. Analysts are expecting to see an increase of 1.0% in the overall index and a 0.2% rise in the core data.

The second of three reports being posted tomorrow is May's Housing Starts report. This report gives us a measurement of housing sector strength, but is the week's least important. It usually doesn't have a major impact on the bond market or mortgage rates and I see no reason for this month's results to be any different. Analysts are expecting to see a drop in starts of new homes between April and May.

The third and final piece of data is May's Industrial Production. This report will be released at 9:15 AM ET. It measures output at U.S. factories, mines and utilities, giving us an important measurement of manufacturing sector strength. If it reveals that production is rising, concerns of manufacturing strength may come into play in the bond market. A decline would indicate that the manufacturing sector is weaker than expected and should help push mortgage rates lower. Current forecasts are calling for an increase of 0.1%.

Overall, look for tomorrow to be the biggest day of the week. Not just because it brings the release of three of the four reports, but because it brings us the PPI that is considered to be a key inflation reading. I am still not sure that we have seen the end of the recent bond selling. Therefore, I am holding the lock recommendations for the time being.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 16th, 2008 12:15 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/09/2008 10:43:00 AM CST

June 9th, 2008 12:32 PM

Monday's bond market has opened down sharply as investors turn away from inflation sensitive investments. The stock markets are mixed by a wide margin with the Dow up 110 points and the Nasdaq down 14 points. The bond market is currently down 30/32, which will likely push this morning's mortgage rates higher by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point. I also would not be surprised to see further upward revisions sometime today as the bond market appears likely to continue its selling.

There was no relevant economic news released today. The week's first but least important data is April's Goods and Services Trade Balance report tomorrow morning. This report gives us the size of the U.S. trade deficit and will be released at 8:30 AM. It isn't likely to cause much movement in the markets or mortgage rates, but nevertheless forecasts are expecting to see a $59.5 billion deficit.

Late Wednesday, the Federal Reserve will release its Beige Book. This data details economic conditions throughout the U.S. by region. It is relied upon heavily by the Federal Reserve during FOMC meetings when determining monetary policy. If it shows slowing economic activity, the bond market may thrive and mortgage rates could drop shortly after the 2:00 PM ET release. If it reveals signs of inflation growing, we could see mortgage rates revise higher Wednesday afternoon.

Overall, it is going to be a fairly busy week for the financial markets. I feel that Friday will be the single most important day of the week with the release of the CPI, but Thursday also is likely to bring significant movement in rates due to the Retail Sales report being released. Accordingly, this would be a very good week to maintain fairly constant contact with your mortgage professional.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Lock if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 9th, 2008 12:32 PMPost a Comment (0)

Newsletter-June 9th, 2008

June 6th, 2008 3:16 PM

Newsletter-June 9th, 2008

Newsletter-June 9th, 2008

James "Jay" Mandl
Sr. Loan Officer
Texas Mortgage Capital Corp
13526 George Rd, Suite 106
San Antonio, TX 78230
Phone: (210)493-5300
Fax: (210)493-1211
Cell Phone: (210)633-6409
E-Mail: jay@txmortgage.com
Website: http://www.mandlmortgage.com

Market Comment

Mortgage bond prices fell pushing mortgage interest rates higher. Inflation fears were fanned by Fed Chairman Bernanke’s comments indicating "longer-term inflation expectations have risen in recent months, which is a significant concern for the Federal Reserve." Oil prices retreated to near $122 per barrel the early portion of the week only to bounce higher Friday with prices around $138 per barrel.

For the week, interest rates on government and conventional loans rose by about 1/2 of a discount point.

The consumer price index Friday will be the most important event this week. Trade data and retail sales may also move the market. Expect oil and stocks to continue to factor into trading, as inflation fears remain a concern.

LOOKING AHEAD

Economic Indicator	Release Date & Time	Consensus Estimate	Analysis
Trade Data	Tuesday, June 10, 8:30 am, et	$59.5 billion deficit	Important. Affects the value of the dollar. A falling deficit may strengthen the dollar and lead to lower rates.
Fed "Beige Book"	Wednesday, June 11, 2:00 pm, et	None	Important. This Fed report details current economic conditions across the US. Signs of weakness may lead to lower rates.
Retail Sales	Thursday, June 12, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.6%	Important. A measure of consumer demand. A smaller than expected increase may lead to lower mortgage rates.
Business Inventories	Thursday, June 12, 10:00 am, et	Up 0.4%	Low importance. An indication of stored-up capacity. A significantly larger increase may lead to lower rates.
Consumer Price Index	Friday, June 13, 8:30 am, et	Up 0.5%, Core up 0.2%	Important. A measure of inflation at the consumer level. Lower than expected increases may lead to lower rates.
U of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Friday, June 13, 10:00 am, et	57.5	Important. An indication of consumers’ willingness to spend. Weakness may lead to lower mortgage rates.

Business Inventories

The report on business inventories basically gives a broader look at the durable goods, factory orders, and retail sales reports. Not only is this report an important part of the investment component of the GDP, but it also provides additional evidence about the economy in the upcoming months. Changes in business inventories slow as the economy approaches a peak, and rise as the economy approaches the trough of a recession. Therefore the change in business inventories is a leading indicator of GDP. The data for this report, which are published by the Department of Commerce’s Census Bureau, comes from a monthly survey of inventories, orders, and manufacturers’ shipments, in addition to the merchant wholesalers and retail trade surveys.

Not a great amount of attention is typically paid to this report due to the fact that much of the data is already available and surprises are rare. The only new information in this report is retail inventories. However, given the recent negative trend in mortgage bonds, this report may be more of an influence.

The potential for mortgage interest rates to push higher is real considering oil price pressures and inflation concerns noted by Fed Chairman Bernanke. However there still remains some uncertainty and a possibility rates could bounce back a bit following the recent jump higher.

It is important to remember that interest rates tend to improve slowly while negative movements tend to happen fast and furiously. Capitalizing on interest rates at the current levels protects against uncertainty surrounding future interest rate developments.

Copyright2008. All Rights Reserved. Mortgage Market Information Services, Inc. The information contained herein is believed to be accurate, however no representation or warranties are written or implied.

MORTGAGE MARKET IN REVIEW

Newsletter-June 9th, 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 6th, 2008 3:16 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 06/02/2008 10:20:00 AM CST

June 2nd, 2008 1:30 PM

Monday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite stronger than expected economic news. Helping boost bond prices this morning are sizable stock losses with the Dow down 132 points and the Nasdaq down 27 points. The bond market is currently up 6/32, but we will likely still see an increase in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .125 of a discount point due to weakness late Friday.

The first data of the week was the Institute for Supply Management's (ISM) manufacturing index. It revealed a reading of 49.6 that was over a full point higher than forecasts. This means that manufacturers were more optimistic about business conditions than analysts had thought. That is considered negative news for bonds because strengthening manufacturing activity usually leads to strong overall economic activity and raises inflation concerns. Fortunately, traders seem to be more interested in today's stock weakness than this data.

Tomorrow's only relevant news is the Commerce Department's release of April's Factory Orders data. This manufacturing sector report is similar to last week's Durable Goods Orders release, but also includes orders for non-durable goods. It can cause some movement in the financial markets if it varies from forecasts by a wide margin, but it isn't expected to cause much change in rates this month. Current forecasts are expecting to see a decline in orders of 0.1%.

Overall, look for Friday to be the most important day of the remaining week with the release of May's Employment figures. This morning's data failed to drive bond prices or mortgage rates in any direction, but Friday's data most likely will. If we see stronger than expected readings Friday, I expect to see mortgage rates close the week higher than this morning's levels.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing w as taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on June 2nd, 2008 1:30 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mr Mortgage-CA Housing Crisis - Currently 4.25 Years Supply!

June 1st, 2008 7:29 PM

Mr Mortgage is back again. While he has his focus on his home state of California pay attention to what he says because it will and has spilled over and effects us all.

Posted by James Mandl on June 1st, 2008 7:29 PMPost a Comment (0)

Find Your Local Farmers Market - Fresh Is Always Better

June 1st, 2008 5:20 PM

Find a Farmer's Market to Track Down Fresh Food

Today, June 01, 2008, 6 hours ago | Kevin Purdy

The U.S. Department of Agriculture has a powerful search engine that finds farmer's markets, or greenmarkets, that are close enough to consider for a weekend trip. It tends to have a wider number of markets listed than regional search sites, and drills down by state, county, city, or even partial market names you might remember. You'll see when the markets are open, get web links when available, and can check to see if some stands will take credit cards. Worth a visit, and print-out, for planning this or future trips that cut down on your pre-packaged shopping.

Posted by James Mandl on June 1st, 2008 5:20 PMPost a Comment (0)