San Antonio TX real estate listings and homes for sale, home buying, home selling information – James "Jay" Mandl - JLM Mortgage Capital

Jay's Mortgage and Investors Blog

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 04/29/2008

April 29th, 2008 12:08 PM

Tuesday's bond market has opened in positive territory despite a stronger than expected economic reading. The stock markets are showing early losses with the Dow down 50 points and the Nasdaq down 9 points. The bond market is currently up 10/32, which with yesterday's late strength should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 - .375 of a discount point.

The Conference Board gave us April's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) late this morning, revealing a stronger than expected reading of 62.3. However, an upward revision to March's reading has actually worked favorably for bonds. The difference between forecasts and the previous March reading is extremely close to the difference between today's reading and the revised March reading. This means that even though confidence was a little higher than thought in March, it dropped as much as it was expected to in April. The result is little impact on bond trading or mortgage rates.

Tomorrow is going to be a very interesting day as brings us the release of two important reports along with the FOMC meeting results. The first is the preliminary version of the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). This is arguably the single most important report that we see on a regular basis. The GDP is the sum of all products and services produced in the U.S. and is considered to be the best indicator of economic growth or contraction. I expect this report to cause major movement in the financial markets tomorrow and therefore the mortgage market also. Analysts are expecting to see output at an annual rate of 0.5%. A smaller increase would be ideal for mortgage rates a sit would fuel recession concerns. But, a larger increase would almost certainly cause inflation concerns in the bond market that would push mortgage rates higher tomorrow morning.

The next report of the day is the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. This gives us a measurement of wage-inflation. If it shows a large increase, we may see inflation concerns cause the bond market to fall and mortgage rates to rise. A smaller than expected increase would be good news for the bond market and mortgage pricing. Current forecasts are showing a rise of 0.8%.

This week's FOMC meeting will began today but will not adjourn until tomorrow afternoon. It will likely adjourn with an announcement of another rate cut to key short term interest rates. Just how much of a reduction is open for debate. Look for another round of volatility following the 2:15 PM ET post-meeting statement.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Float if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is onl y my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on April 29th, 2008 12:08 PMPost a Comment (0)

Daily Rate Lock Recommendation - 04/30/2008 11:06:00 PM CST

April 30th, 2008 11:26 AM

Wednesday's bond market has opened up slightly after this morning's economic data failed to give us any surprises. The stock markets are posting gains with the Dow up 98 points and the Nasdaq up 14 points. The bond market is currently up 3/32, which will likely keep this morning's mortgage rates close to yesterday's levels.

Today's big report was the initial reading to the 1st Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). It showed that the economy grew at a 0.6% annual pace. This was slightly stronger than expected, but not enough to create concern in bonds. Offsetting that reading was a key inflation reading in the data that came in lower than expected. The result was this report having little impact on today's bond market or mortgage rates.

The second report posted this morning was the 1st Quarter Employment Cost Index (ECI), which tracks employer costs for wages and benefits. It revealed a 0.7% increase that was slightly weaker than expected. This is good news for bonds and mortgage rates, however, traders seem to be waiting for this afternoon's events before making any adjustments to their holdings.

This week's FOMC meeting will adjourn 2:15 PM ET this afternoon. It is expected to yield a quarter point cut to key short-term interest rates. Assuming the Fed does make that move, the post meeting statement will be watched closely for any indication of the Fed's next move, or a lack of one. There is some debate about whether the Fed will continue to cut rates or if they will go into a holding pattern due to concern about inflation.

I suspect that the post meeting statement is going to have some verbiage about inflation that will cause concern in the bond market. Accordingly, I am shifting to a lock recommendation for immediate and short-term periods. But, if this is a false alarm, I will be shifting back to a float recommendation this afternoon. Look for an update to this report shortly after the markets have a chance to react to the FOMC meeting results.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

©Mortgage Commentary 2008

Posted by James Mandl on April 30th, 2008 11:26 AMPost a Comment (0)

Consumers Take Action - Tell them what you think

April 28th, 2008 3:48 PM

I just recieved a very disturbing email. We must act together, immediately, to prevent the current Home Valuation Code of Conduct from becoming federal policy. The deadline for submitting feedback on the HVCC is Wednesday, April 30th. We must let the parties involved know that the terms of the HVCC virtually eliminate mortgage brokers as a thriving collection of independent small businesses, by mandating that mortgage brokers cannot be involved in ordering appraisals which in turn limits consumer choice.

Here is the email:

To: All mortgage brokers
Re: New regulation we need to stop
From: David Biggers, Chairman, a la mode, inc.

The reason for this memo, a regulatory call to action, deals with a nearly silently adopted regulation which could very well be the most dangerous restriction ever placed on the mortgage industry. It literally threatens to eliminate mortgage brokers almost overnight. We have to act now to stop it, because the commentary period on the proposed regulation ends this Wednesday.

The new regulations came out of a lawsuit brought by the New York Attorney General involving coercion of appraisers by large institutions. In the settlement agreement, the GSEs (Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac), and the Office of Federal Housing Enterprise Oversight (OFHEO) agreed to change national appraisal rules – in exchange for the Attorney General's office terminating its investigation of the GSEs.

Unfortunately, while we believe the agreement has the best of intentions, the hastily written embedded regulations (called the "Home Valuation Code of Conduct", or HVCC) do not solve the problem and in fact severely punish agents, mortgage brokers, appraisers, and ultimately consumers. If there ever was a case of the cure being worse than the disease, this is it.

The two portions of the HVCC that most affect you are:

"The lender will not accept any appraisal report completed by an appraiser selected, retained, or compensated in any manner by… mortgage brokers..." and

"…any person… who is compensated on a commission basis upon the successful completion of a loan… shall be forbidden from… any communications with an appraiser"

No, this isn't a bad dream, and those are quotes directly from the regulation's body. Read them again. You're banned from ordering appraisals and you're banned from even speaking with an appraiser.

Why every mortgage broker should be concerned about the proposed HVCC:

Brokers are specifically singled out as being "the problem", and are banned from even talking to appraisers at all; that's a RESPA "death sentence" for every relationship you've ever built
It shifts power toward large institutions and away from mortgage brokers, since the lender alone becomes the sole point of contact for the borrower in critical areas
Your role as one of the prime coordinators of the transaction will be severely damaged, and handed to the lender
This completely cuts you out of your role as a broker shopping loans, since the consumer has to either lock in with the first lender or pay for separate appraisals for each lender considered — and ultimately, lenders will exploit that to induce consumers to bypass you completely
Since buyers wind up paying for a separate appraisal for every lender, closing costs go up, competition goes down, and housing affordability plummets even further
The business relationships that you've spent years building with agents and appraisers are made worthless overnight
The entire regulation is biased toward the large institutions and against independent appraisers, mortgage brokers, and agents
If this becomes law, what part of your value-added role will come under attack next?
As you can see, this isn't just about appraisers. The draconian measures in the HVCC will almost single-handedly eliminate the market for mortgage brokers if left unchecked.

Think I'm exaggerating? Here's what the National Association of Mortgage Brokers (NAMB) said on March 3rd, the day the HVCC came out: "[The HVCC] will create a severe disadvantage to small business mortgage brokers, and prevent them from engaging competitively in the mortgage marketplace ….the National Association of Mortgage Brokers intends to consult with our legal advisors and to take appropriate legal action if necessary." And in a separate call-to-action email on April 25th, from NAMB's president, there's this simple warning as well: "This may be the most important issue facing our industry today."

Indeed, indeed. I couldn't agree more. But you can do something to stop it. By every means necessary, you need to contact the powers-that-be and tell them how opposed you are to the HVCC.

You can do so right now by simply visiting our website and using our convenient political action page to make your opposition known instantly. Your voice will have a huge impact on the OFHEO, Fannie, Freddie, and Congress. All you have to do is click here: http://www.alamode.com/HVCC-MB.

Why are we involved? Any threat to you is a threat to me. Over 30,000 mortgage brokers use my company's websites and tools. And all told, over 100,000 agents, appraisers, and mortgage professionals use our products.

Unfortunately, all the software in the world won't make this latest problem go away. But 100,000 people collectively voicing their opposition to poor regulations – now that can indeed make a difference. Join me in sending a message to Washington, without making any donation or spending any money at all, by just using your mouse. Join us now in sending a clear message by visiting http://www.alamode.com/HVCC-MB.

Thanks for reading this, and thank you in advance for your help.

Dave Biggers
Chairman
a la mode, inc.

Copy and paste the letter provided on the previous link to the New York Attorney Generals Office here:http://www.oag.state.ny.us/online_forms/email_ag.jsp

All consumers should act on this. Even if you are not in the middle of financing a home this if passed can and will affect you and your right to choose what lender to use. Please dont limit your own rights by not taking action!

Posted by James Mandl on April 28th, 2008 3:48 PMPost a Comment (0)

Mr Mortgage- Non-Mainstream March Existing Home Sales Report

April 23rd, 2008 2:03 PM

He's back with another great report about how this report relates to you.

Posted by James Mandl on April 23rd, 2008 2:03 PMPost a Comment (0)

Save Money - Easy Way To Get Free Shipping

April 23rd, 2008 11:48 AM

Save all you can.

Web Site Free Shipping Makes Shopping Online Cheaper

April 22, 2008, 3:00:00 PM | Adam Pash

Web site FreeShipping.org rounds up free shipping coupons to over 600 stores, helping you save cash on your next online purchase. Similar to previously mentioned Free Shipping On, FreeShipping.org appears to have a slightly broader reach and better navigation. The two sites also appear to showcase slightly different coupons for some sites, so both might be worth a look before you check out and pay for shipping. Alternately, if Amazon is your online retailer of choice, the Amazon Filler Item Finder is a must-bookmark site for getting to free shipping on your Amazon purchases.

Posted by James Mandl on April 23rd, 2008 11:48 AMPost a Comment (0)

The Cost Vs. The Value Of Remodeling - Investors Take Note

April 23rd, 2008 11:34 AM

This is some great infomration for the rehab investors out there.

Remodeling: Cost Vs. Value

April 22, 2008, 4:07:02 PM | Eric Ames

Investors who are looking to remodel homes for resale should always keep in mind the cost vs. value of the alterations. For example, remodeling a kitchen is worth considerably more than remodeling a spare bedroom. But what about deciding between a deck and a bathroom upgrade? Is better to replace the windows or do a new roof? Investors who are pondering these questions can refer to the remodeling Cost vs. Value guide issued by Remodeling magazine each year. There are also some additional considerations investors should keep in mind.

The remodeling Cost vs. Value guide is a helpful resource for investors, as it helps put a figure on what the actual value of a particular remodel is compared to its cost. For example, the 2007 Cost vs. Value guide says that adding a deck costs an average of $10,347 nationwide, but only increases the home’s value an average of $8,835. That means that every dollar spent on a new deck equals a loss of 0.146 cents, which on the surface would appear to be a poor investment. As most real estate investors know, though, real estate numbers should not be looked at nationally because real estate differs widely from one city to another and even from one neighborhood to another.

To help with this, Remodeling provides regional and even city-specific numbers, although their regions are large, so investors would do best to focus on the city-specific figures. For example, a deck remodel on average nationally returns 85.4 percent compared to an average in the Pacific region of 108 percent and an average of 120.4 percent in Seattle. So you can see how much the cost vs. value of repairs can change depending on coverage area of the data. But investors shouldn’t stop their analysis there.

Investors must always take into account the specific neighborhood and the types of homes surrounding the home they are remodeling. A major upscale kitchen remodel might return an average of 99.2 percent of its costs in the city of Seattle, yet if this remodel was done to a home in a bad neighborhood, the returns would be significantly less than that. When remodeling for investment, you should always make sure to keep the upgrades within the norm of the neighborhood. As an investor, you never want to be stuck with the nicest house in the neighborhood.

Used correctly, the cost vs. value data provided by Remodeling can be valuable, but investors need to add their own common sense and analysis to the equation as well.

Posted by James Mandl on April 23rd, 2008 11:34 AMPost a Comment (0)

What Aristotle Can Teach Us About Locking Mortgage Rates Instead Of Floating Them

April 22nd, 2008 2:40 PM

I thought this might be some good information if you are thinking about your pending interest rate and if you should lock or float.

What Aristotle Can Teach Us About Locking Mortgage Rates Instead Of Floating Them

Posted on April 22, 2008 By Dan Green

Aristotle bestowed the gift of syllogism upon the world and thousands of years later, it is still believed to be the core of Western logical thought.

A simple syllogism goes like this:

Mortgage bond markets are unpredictable
Morgage bond markets dictate mortgage interest rates
Therefore, mortgage interest rates are unpredictable

For as much as guys like me can have a vague idea of what can push mortgage rates in one direction or the other, there's always something that comes out of left field to surprise us.

The syllogism says that predicting the future of mortgage rates is a waste of energy.

Mortgage bond markets are unpredictable because the world is unpredictable. We can try to make sense of it, but there are a near infinite number of variables to the equation.

Lately, we've been focused on economic events like Unemployment Rates and Retail Sales. We also spent time on loan-level pricing adjustments. Pretty soon, we'll add Hurricane Season and oil pipelines to the mix because that will have an impact on mortgage rates, too.

It's like juggling six balls at once and then being told to go stand on a ladder. There's just too much to which to pay attention.

And then -- to make predictions even tougher -- mortgage rates are moving with a tremendous amount of velocity right now. Over the last 60 days, the nation's largest lender is averaging 2.13 rate sheets per day. That's the shortest rate sheet lifespan in recent memory.

It also means that mortgage rate quotes are expiring extremely fast.

So, except in rare circumstances, the mortgage rate syllogism is why I advise mortgage applicants to lock a mortgage rate in as soon as possible. "Floating" can be risky in an unstable mortgage market.

Today's rates and payments may look good, but as Aristotle reminds us, ~~tomorrow's~~ this afternoon's rates and payments could look completely different.

Posted by James Mandl on April 22nd, 2008 2:40 PMPost a Comment (0)

Is The Sub-Prime mess at a close or was it just the tip of the iceberg?

April 18th, 2008 6:46 PM

I ran accross this on You-Tube and the guy who made this makes some very interesting points and revelations.

He calls himself Mr. Mortgage and describes himself as: A former 20-year mortgage banking professional, now independent financial industry consultant and information arbitrageur, here to tell you the real story and guide you through the maze of lies, spin and half-truths regarding the housing and mortgage sectors and their players.

After you watch this think about how you are positioned. How will you be affected? Call me with your questions and lets talk about it.

Posted by James Mandl on April 18th, 2008 6:46 PMPost a Comment (0)

A Saturday Funny

April 12th, 2008 12:45 PM

If you are the owner or in some cases the person of a cat or dog I think you will really enjoy this. Have a great weekend.

Excerpts from a Dog's Daily Diary

8:00 am - Dog food! My favorite thing!

9:30 am - A car ride! My favorite thing!

9:40 am - A walk in the park! My favorite thing!

10:30 am - Got rubbed and petted! My favorite thing!

12:00 pm - Lunch! My favorite thing!

1:00 pm - Played in the yard! My favorite thing!

3:00 pm - Wagged my tail! My favorite thing!

5:00 pm - Milk bones! My favorite thing!

7:00 pm - Got to play ball! My favorite thing!

8:00 pm - Wow! Watched TV with the people! My favorite thing!

11:00 pm - Sleeping on the bed! My favorite thing!

Excerpts from a Cat's Daily Diary

Day 983 of my captivity.

My captors continue to taunt me with bizarre little dangling objects.

They dine lavishly on fresh meat, while the other inmates and I are fed hash or some sort of dry nuggets. Although I make my contempt for the rations perfectly clear, I nevertheless must eat something in order to keep up my strength.

The only thing that keeps me going is my dream of escape. In an attempt to disgust them, I once again vomit on the carpet.

Today I decapitated a mouse and dropped its headless body at their feet. I had hoped this would strike fear into their hearts, since it clearly demonstrates what I am capable of. However, they merely made condescending comments about what a "good little hunter" I am.

Bastards.

There was some sort of assembly of their accomplices tonight. I was placed in solitary confinement for the duration of the event. However,I could hear the noises and smell the food. I overheard that my confinement was due to the power of "allergies." I must learn what this means, and how to use it to my advantage.

Today I was almost successful in an attempt to assassinate one of my tormentors by weaving around his feet as he was walking. I must try this again tomorrow -- but at the top of the stairs.

I am convinced that the other prisoners here are flunkies and snitches.

The dog receives special privileges. He is regularly released - yet seems to be more than willing to return. He is obviously retarded.

The bird has got to be an informant. I observe him communicate with the guards regularly. I am certain that he reports my every move. My captors have arranged protective custody for him in an elevated cell, so he is safe. For now...

Posted by James Mandl on April 12th, 2008 12:45 PMPost a Comment (0)

The Housing Market Roller Coaster

April 7th, 2008 12:59 PM

I read this and found it to be a very good back to basics thought about investing in real estate.

The Housing Market Roller Coaster

I came across an interesting video on YouTube that takes literally the phrase, “The housing market is like a roller coaster.” Feel free to take the ride:

I believe the ride stops at the end of 2007, and we all know what happened then. The video illustrates well that the housing market does not increase 3 to 7 percent every year like some real estate agents might lead you to believe. It goes up, then it goes down, then it goes flat but overall it trends up. This is basic information that most investors already know, though it is easy to get caught up in the panic of a crashing market. Remember smart investors make their money when they buy the property, so the ups and downs have little effect on them.

Be smart: Make sure the numbers make sense before you buy. In rough markets such as this, add in extra cushion to your numbers and don’t rush into decisions. Investors who are adverse to risk, or just scared to death of the current real estate market, should focus their efforts on cash flow properties. With cash flow property investors have the security of knowing that no matter how bad the market gets, at least they don’t have to worry about how they are going to pay the mortgage. After all people will also need to live somewhere, and if they aren’t buying then they are renting. Cash flow properties aren’t as sexy as some other real estate investments, but over the long haul they generally provide a great return with minimal risk.

Today, April 07, 2008, 2 hours ago | Eric Ames

Posted by James Mandl on April 7th, 2008 12:59 PMPost a Comment (0)

Go Green, Live Rich

April 3rd, 2008 10:44 AM

This was posted on a blog I visit and it was about an authors new book that I think makes a good point. The author has a lot of good books. Certainly worth a look.

Go Green, Live Rich: 50 Simple Ways to Save the Earth and Get Rich Trying

David Bach--author of the popular Finish Rich series of personal finance books and the man who coined the term Latte Factor--has penned a new book entitled Go Green, Live Rich: 50 Simple Ways to Save the Earth and Get Rich Trying. It is a quick and interesting read, filled with a sense of purpose as well as easy steps that one can take to become a smarter consumer and live a greener lifestyle.

There is a widely held view out there that greening your lifestyle is an expensive and painful process. Bach deftly explodes this myth in 192 (recycled) pages. Early on in the book he revisits the Latte Factor concept, but tweaks it a bit and suggests we find our "Litter Factor."

I have long encouraged my readers to identify their Latte Factor and eliminate it to start saving money. But small changes such as not buying coffee in a disposable cup or water in a plastic bottle not only are good for your wallet, but they actually better the planet. In the same way that "little things" add up to drain your wealth, "small changes" add up to make a big difference for the Earth.
Consider this: Every year, Americans drink more than 100 billion cups of coffee. Of those, 14.4 billion are served in disposable paper cups, enough to wrap the Earth 55 times if placed end to end! Plus, those paper cups contain a plastic lining made from a petro-chemical that would produce enough energy to heat 8,300 homes a year.

He goes on to briefly discuss bottled water, referencing what I think was the best article published last year--Charles Fishman's Message in a Bottle. This is just a snippet of the first chapter, but it contains advice that, if taken, can lead to serious change... and save you money to boot. The rest of the book has equally clear and concise thinking and advice that ranges from how to save money by becoming energy smart, to shopping green, to going green at work. The steps to going green and energy-efficiency aren't necessarily going to be completely new to people, but Bach revealing how taking them is ultimately cost-efficient probably will be.

You'll be hearing much more from Bach on this issue. His first stop will be on the Today Show next Monday discussing seven green steps that can save you 3,000 dollars a year. The book itself will be hitting the shelves on Tuesday of next week, and I think you could consider it's $14.95 list price as an investment in the future of your finances, and maybe, even the future of planet as well.

Posted by dylan at April 2, 2008 9:35 AM

Posted by James Mandl on April 3rd, 2008 10:44 AMPost a Comment (0)